By using a nomenclature, an analyst can identify precisely the position of a wave in the overall progression of the stock market, much as longitude and latitude are used to identify a geographical location. All waves are of a specific degree.
Yet it may be impossible to identify precisely the degree of developing waves, particularly subwaves at the start of a new wave.
Degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths but upon form , which is a function of both price and time. Fortunately, the precise degree is usually irrelevant to successful forecasting since it is relative degree that matters most.
To know a major advance is due is more important than its precise name. Later events always clarify degree. Every wave serves one of two functions: action or reaction. Specifically, a wave may either advance the cause of the wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. The function of a wave is determined by its relative direction. An actionary or trend wave is any wave that trends in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part. A reactionary or countertrend wave is any wave that trends in the direction opposite to that of the wave of one larger degree of which it is part.
Actionary waves are labeled with odd numbers and letters for example, 1, 3, 5, a and c in Figure Reactionary waves are labeled with even numbers and letters for example, 2, 4 and b in Figure All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode.
If all actionary waves developed in motive mode, then there would be no need for different terms. Indeed, most actionary waves do subdivide into five waves.
However, as the following sections reveal, a few actionary waves develop in corrective mode, i. A detailed knowledge of pattern construction is required in order to understand the distinction between actionary function and motive mode, which in the underlying model of Figures through are indistinct. A thorough understanding of the forms detailed later in this chapter will clarify why we have introduced these terms to the Elliott wave lexicon.
The Wave Principle would be simple to apply if the essential design described above were the complete description of market behavior. The real world, fortunately or unfortunately, is not so simple.
While an idea such as cyclicality in markets or human experience implies precise repetition, the concept of waves allows for immense variability, which is in fact abundantly in evidence. The rest of this chapter fills out the description of how the market actually behaves. That is what Elliott set out to describe, and he succeeded in doing so. There are a number of specific variations on the underlying theme, which Elliott meticulously described and illustrated.
He also noted the important fact that each pattern has identifiable requirements as well as tendencies. From these observations, he was able to formulate numerous rules and guidelines for proper wave identification. A thorough knowledge of such details is necessary to understand what the market can do, and at least as important, what it does not do. Chapters 2 and 4 present a number of guidelines to proper wave interpretation.
If you do not wish to become a market analyst or are concerned that you will become bogged down in technical detail, skim the next paragraph and then skip to Chapter 3. A brief perusal of the highly condensed summary below should ensure that you will at least recognize the concepts and terms referenced in later chapters as necessary aspects of the Wave Principle.
Additional technical aspects of waves, which are discussed in detail from here through Chapter 2, are herewith stated as briefly as possible: Most motive waves take the form of an impulse, i. Impulses are typically bound by parallel lines. One motive wave in an impulse, i. There is a rare motive variation called a diagonal, which is a wedge-shaped pattern that appears at the start wave 1 or A or the end wave 5 or C of a larger wave. Corrective waves have numerous variations. The main ones are named zigzag which is the one shown in Figures , and , flat and triangle whose labels include D and E.
These three simple corrective patterns can string together to form more complex corrections the components of which are labeled W, X, Y and Z. In impulses, waves 2 and 4 nearly always alternate in form, where one correction is typically of the zigzag family and the other is not. Each wave exhibits characteristic volume behavior and a "personality" in terms of attendant momentum and investor sentiment. General readers may now skip to Chapter 3. For those who want to learn the details, we will turn our attention to the specifics of wave form.
Motive waves subdivide into five waves and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of a motive wave is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.
Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among the three actionary waves 1, 3 and 5 of a motive wave. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied. It almost always holds on an arithmetic basis as well. There are two types of motive waves: impulse and diagonal. The most common motive wave is an impulse , per Figure In an impulse, wave 4 does not enter the price territory of i.
This rule holds for all non-leveraged "cash" markets. Futures markets, with their extreme leverage, can induce short term price extremes that would not occur in cash markets. Even so, overlapping is usually confined to daily and intraday price fluctuations and even then is rare.
In addition, the actionary subwaves 1, 3 and 5 of an impulse are themselves motive, and subwave 3 is always an impulse. Figures , and all depict impulses in the 1, 3, 5, A and C wave positions. As detailed in the preceding three paragraphs, there are only a few simple rules for interpreting impulses properly. A rule is so called because it governs all waves to which it applies. Typical, yet not inevitable, characteristics of waves are called guidelines.
Guidelines of impulse formation, including extension, truncation, alternation, equality, channeling, personality and ratio relationships are discussed below and throughout Chapters 2 and 4. A rule should never be disregarded. In many years of practice with countless patterns, the authors have found but one or two instances above Subminuette degree when all other rules and guidelines combined to suggest that a rule was broken.
Analysts who routinely break any of the rules detailed in this section are practicing some form of analysis other than that guided by the Wave Principle. These rules have great practical utility in correct counting, which we will explore further in discussing extensions. Most impulses contain what Elliott called an extension. An extension is an elongated impulse with exaggerated subdivisions.
The vast majority of impulses contain an extension in one and only one of their three actionary subwaves. The rest either contain no extension or an extension in both subwaves three and five. At times, the subdivisions of an extended wave are nearly the same amplitude and duration as the other four waves of the larger impulse, giving a total count of nine waves of similar size rather than the normal count of "five" for the sequence.
In a nine-wave sequence, it is occasionally difficult to say which wave extended. However, it is usually irrelevant anyway, since under the Elliott system, a count of nine and a count of five have the same technical significance. The diagrams in Figure , illustrating extensions, will clarify this point.
The fact that an extension typically occurs in only one actionary subwave provides a useful guide to the expected lengths of upcoming waves.
For instance, if the first and third waves are of about equal length, the fifth wave will likely be a protracted surge. Conversely, if wave three extends, the fifth should be simply constructed and resemble wave one. In the stock market, the most commonly extended wave is wave 3. This fact is of particular importance to real-time wave interpretation when considered in conjunction with two of the rules of impulse waves: Wave 3 is never the shortest actionary wave, and wave 4 may not overlap wave 1.
To clarify, let us assume two situations involving an improper middle wave, as illustrated in Figures and In Figure , wave 4 overlaps the top of wave 1. In Figure , wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and shorter than wave 5. According to the rules, neither is an acceptable labeling. Once the apparent wave 3 is proved unacceptable, it must be relabeled in some way that is acceptable. In fact, it is almost always to be labeled as shown in Figure , implying an extended wave 3 in the making.
Do not hesitate to get into the habit of labeling the early stages of a third wave extension. The exercise will prove highly rewarding, as you will understand from the discussion under Wave Personality see Chapter 2.
Figure is perhaps the single most useful guide to real time impulse wave counting in this book. Extensions may also occur within extensions. In the stock market, the third wave of an extended third wave is typically an extension as well, producing a profile such as shown in Figure A real-life example is shown in Figure Figure illustrates a fifth wave extension of a fifth wave extension.
Extended fifths are quite common in major bull markets in commodities see Chapter 6. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth.
A truncation often occurs following a particularly strong third wave. The U. The first occurred in October at the time of the Cuban crisis see Figure It followed the crash that occurred as wave 3. The second occurred at yearend in see Figure It followed the soaring and broad wave 3 that took place from October to March A diagonal is a motive pattern yet not an impulse, as it has two corrective characteristics. As with an impulse, no reactionary subwave fully retraces the preceding actionary subwave, and the third subwave is never the shortest.
However, a diagonal is the only five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of i.
On rare occasions, a diagonal may end in a truncation, although in our experience such truncations occur only by the slimmest of margins. This pattern substitutes for an impulse at two specific locations in the wave structure. An ending diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of diagonals appear in the C-wave position of A-B-C formations.
In double or triple threes see next section , they appear only as the final C wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns , indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. A contracting diagonal takes a wedge shape within two converging lines. This most common form for an ending diagonal is illustrated in Figures and and shown in its typical position within a larger impulse wave.
However, it is unsatisfying analytically in that its third wave was the shortest actionary wave. Ending diagonals have occurred recently in Minor degree as in early , in Minute degree as in February-March , and in Subminuette degree as in June Figures and show two of these periods, illustrating one upward and one downward "real life" formation.
Figure shows our real-life possible expanding diagonal. Notice that in each case, an important change of direction followed. Although not so illustrated in Figures and , the fifth wave of an ending diagonal often ends in a "throw-over," i. The real-life examples in Figures and show throw-overs. While volume tends to diminish as a diagonal of small degree progresses, the pattern always ends with a spike of relatively high volume when a throw-over occurs.
On rare occasions, the fifth subwave falls short of its resistance trendline. A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began and typically much further.
A falling ending diagonal by the same token usually gives rise to an upward thrust. Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonals all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction.
It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: , although in two cases, they can be labeled , so the jury is out on a strict definition.
Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure A leading diagonal in the wave one position is typically followed by a deep retracement see Chapter 4. Figure shows a real-life leading diagonal. We have recently observed that a leading diagonal can also take an expanding shape.
This form appears to occur primarily at the start of declines in the stock market see Figure These patterns were not originally discovered by R. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity. Markets move against the trend of one greater degree only with a seeming struggle. Resistance from the larger trend appears to prevent a correction from developing a full motive structure.
This struggle between the two oppositely-trending degrees generally makes corrective waves less clearly identifiable than motive waves, which always flow with comparative ease in the direction of the one larger trend. As another result of this conflict between trends, corrective waves are quite a bit more varied than motive waves.
Further, they occasionally increase or decrease in complexity as they unfold so that what are technically subwaves of the same degree can by their complexity or time length appear to be of different degree see Figures and For all these reasons, it can be difficult at times to fit corrective waves into recognizable patterns until they are completed and behind us.
As the terminations of corrective waves are less predictable than those for motive waves, you must exercise more patience and flexibility in your analysis when the market is in a meandering corrective mood than when prices are in a persistent motive trend.
The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections are never fives. Only motive waves are fives. For this reason, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. The figures in this section should serve to illustrate this point. Corrective processes come in two styles. Sharp corrections angle steeply against the larger trend.
Sideways corrections, while always producing a net retracement of the preceding wave, typically contain a movement that carries back to or beyond its starting level, thus producing an overall sideways appearance.
The discussion of the guideline of alternation in Chapter 2 explains the reason for noting these two styles. Specific corrective patterns fall into three main categories: Zigzag ; includes three types: single, double and triple ;. Triangle ; three types: contracting, barrier and expanding; and one variation: running. A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is , and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures and In a bear market, a zigzag correction takes place in the opposite direction, as shown in Figures and For this reason, a zigzag in a bear market is often referred to as an inverted zigzag.
Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called a double zigzag see Figure or triple zigzag. These formations are analogous to the extension of an impulse wave but are less common.
Within impulses, second waves frequently sport zigzags, while fourth waves rarely do. Unfortunately, this notation improperly indicated the degree of the actionary subwaves of each simple pattern. They were labeled as being only one degree less than the entire correction when in fact, they are two degrees smaller.
We have eliminated this problem by introducing a useful notational device: labeling the successive actionary components of double and triple corrections as waves W, Y and Z, so that the entire pattern is counted "W-X-Y -X-Z.
Each subwave thereof A, B or C, as well as D or E of a triangle — see later section is now properly seen as two degrees smaller than the entire correction.
Each wave X is a reactionary wave and thus always a corrective wave, typically another zigzag. A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is , as shown in Figures and Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A.
Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags. A flat correction usually retraces less of the preceding impulse wave than does a zigzag.
It tends to occur when the larger trend is strong, so it virtually always precedes or follows an extension. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within an impulse, the fourth wave frequently sports a flat, while the second wave rarely does.
What might be called a "double flat" does occur. However, Elliott categorized such a formation as a "double three," a term we discuss later in this chapter. The word "flat" is used as a catch-all name for any A-B-C correction that subdivides In Elliott literature, however, three types of corrections have been named by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures through Far more common, however, is the variety we call an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave.
Elliott called this variation an "irregular" flat, although the word is inappropriate as they are actually far more common than "regular" flats. In expanded flats, wave B of the pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, as shown for bull markets in Figures and and bear markets in Figures and The formation in the DJIA from August to November was an expanded flat correction in a bear market, or an "inverted expanded flat" see Figure In a rare variation on the pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended, as in Figures through Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend are so powerful that the pattern is skewed in that direction.
The result is akin to the truncation of an impulse. If the supposed B wave, for instance, breaks down into five waves rather than three, it is more likely the first wave up of the impulse of next higher degree. The power of adjacent impulse waves is important in recognizing running corrections, which tend to occur only in strong and fast markets. We must issue a warning, however. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record. A running triangle , in contrast, is much more common see next section.
A triangle appears to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. The triangle pattern contains five overlapping waves that subdivide and are labeled A-B-C-D-E.
A triangle is delineated by connecting the termination points of waves A and C, and B and D. Wave E can undershoot or overshoot the A-C line, and in fact, our experience tells us that it happens more often than not.
There are three varieties of triangles: contracting, barrier and expanding, as illustrated in Figure Elliott contended that the horizontal line of a barrier triangle could occur on either side of the triangle, but such is not the case; it always occurs on the side that the next wave will exceed.
Figure depicts contracting and barrier triangles as taking place entirely within the area of preceding price action, which may be termed a regular r triangle. Yet, it is extremely common for wave B of a contracting triangle to exceed the start of wave A in what may be termed a running triangle, as shown in Figure There are several real life examples of triangles in the charts in this book see Figures , , , , and As you will notice, most of the subwaves in a triangle are zigzags, but sometimes one of the subwaves usually wave C is more complex than the others and can take the shape of a multiple zigzag.
In rare cases, one of the sub-waves usually wave E is itself a triangle, so that the entire pattern protracts into nine waves. Thus, triangles, like zigzags, occasionally display a development that is analogous to an extension. One example occurred in silver from through see Figure A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i. A triangle may also occur as the final actionary pattern in a corrective combination, as discussed in the next section, although even then it usually precedes the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree than the corrective combination.
Although upon extremely rare occasions a second wave in an impulse appears to take the form of a triangle, it is usually due to the fact that a triangle is part of the correction, which is in fact a double three for example, see Figure In the stock market, when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle.
Elliott used the word "thrust" in referring to this swift, short motive wave following a triangle. The thrust is usually an impulse but can be an ending diagonal. In powerful markets, there is no thrust, but instead a prolonged fifth wave. So if a fifth wave following a triangle pushes past a normal thrust movement, it is signaling a likely protracted wave. Post-triangle advancing impulses in commodities at degrees above Intermediate are usually the longest wave in the sequence, as explained in Chapter 6.
Many analysts are fooled into labeling a completed triangle way too early. Triangles take time and go sideways. If you examine Figure closely, you will see that one could have jumped the gun in the middle of wave b, pronouncing the end of five contracting waves. But the boundary lines of triangles almost never collapse so quickly.
Subwave C is typically a complex wave, though wave B or D can fulfill that role. Give triangles time to develop. On the basis of our experience with triangles, as the examples in Figures and later in and illustrate, we propose that often the time at which the boundary lines of a contracting triangle reach an apex coincides with a turning point in the market. Perhaps the frequency of this occurrence would justify its inclusion among the guidelines associated with the Wave Principle.
Elliott called a sideways combination of two corrective patterns a "double three" and three patterns a "triple three. As with double and triple zigzags, the simple corrective pattern components are labeled W, Y and Z. Each reactionary wave, labeled X, can take the shape of any corrective pattern but is most commonly a zigzag. As with multiple zigzags, three patterns appear to be the limit, and even those are rare compared to the more common double three.
Combinations of threes were labeled differently by Elliott at different times, although the illustrative pattern always took the shape of two or three juxtaposed flats, as shown in Figures and However, the component patterns more commonly alternate in form. For example, a flat followed by a triangle is a more typical type of double three which we now know as of ; see Appendix , as illustrated in Figure A flat followed by a zigzag is another example, as shown in Figure Naturally, since the figures in this section depict corrections in bull markets, they need only be inverted to observe them as upward corrections in bear markets.
For the most part, a combination is horizontal in character. Elliott indicated that the entire formation could slant against the larger trend, although we have never found this to be the case. One reason is that there never appears to be more than one zigzag in a combination. Neither is there more than one triangle. Recall that triangles occurring alone precede the final movement of a larger trend. Combinations appear to recognize this character and sport triangles only as the final wave in a double or triple three.
But double and triple threes are different from double and triple zigzags not only in their angle but in their goal. In a double or triple zigzag, the first zigzag is rarely large enough to constitute an adequate price correction of the preceding wave.
The doubling or tripling of the initial form is usually necessary to create an adequately sized price retracement. In a combination, however, the first simple pattern often constitutes an adequate price correction. The doubling or tripling appears to occur mainly to extend the duration of the corrective process after price targets have been substantially met. Sometimes additional time is needed to reach a channel line or achieve a stronger kinship with the other correction in an impulse.
As the consolidation continues, the attendant psychology and fundamentals extend their trends accordingly. Notice that while an impulse wave has a total count of 5, with extensions leading to 9 or 13 waves, and so on, a corrective wave has a count of 3, with combinations leading to 7 or 11 waves, and so on.
The triangle appears to be an exception, although it can be counted as one would a triple three, totaling 11 waves. Thus, if an internal count is unclear, you can sometimes reach a reasonable conclusion merely by counting waves. A count of 9, 13 or 17 with few overlaps, for instance, is likely motive, while a count of 7, 11 or 15 with numerous overlaps is likely corrective.
The main exceptions are diagonals of both types, which are hybrids of motive and corrective forces. In such cases, the end of the pattern is called the "orthodox" top or bottom in order to differentiate it from the actual price high or low that occurs intra-pattern or after the end of the pattern. For example, in Figure , the end of wave 5 is the orthodox top despite the fact that wave 3 registered a higher price.
In Figure , the end of wave 5 is the orthodox bottom. In Figures and , the starting point of wave A is the orthodox top of the preceding bull market despite the higher high of wave B. In Figures and , the start of wave A is the orthodox bottom. In Figure , the end of wave Y is the orthodox bottom of the bear market even though the price low occurs at the end of wave W. This concept is important primarily because a successful analysis always depends upon a proper labeling of the patterns.
Assuming falsely that a particular price extreme is the correct starting point for wave labeling can throw analysis off for some time, while being aware of the requirements of wave form will keep you on track.
Further, when applying the forecasting concepts that will be introduced in Chapter 4, the length and duration of a wave are typically determined by measuring from and projecting orthodox ending points. Earlier in this chapter, we described the two functions waves may perform action and reaction , as well as the two modes of structural development motive and corrective that they undergo.
Now that we have reviewed all types of waves, we can summarize their labels as follows:. As stated earlier, all reactionary waves develop in corrective mode, and most actionary waves develop in motive mode. The preceding sections have described which actionary waves develop in corrective mode. They are:. Because the waves listed above are actionary in relative direction yet develop in corrective mode, we term them "actionary corrective" waves. Though action in five waves is followed by reaction in three waves at all degrees of trend regardless of direction , progress begins with an actionary impulse, which by convention is graphed in the upward direction.
Since all such graphs depict ratios, they could be depicted in the downward direction. Instead of dollars per share, for instance, one could plot shares per dollar. Progress is carried out by the development of impulse waves of ever larger degree. Motive waves downward are merely parts of corrections and therefore are not synonymous with progress.
Similarly, corrective waves upward are still corrective and thus ultimately do not achieve progress. Therefore, three additional terms are required to denote the purpose of a wave, to differentiate conveniently among waves that result in progress and those that do not.
Any motive wave upward that is not within a corrective wave of any larger degree will be termed a progressive wave. It must be labeled 1, 3 or 5. Any declining wave, regardless of mode, will be termed a regressive wave. Finally, an upward wave, regardless of mode, that occurs within a corrective wave of any larger degree will be termed a proregressive wave. Both regressive and proregressive waves are part or all of corrections.
Only a progressive wave is independent of countertrend forces. The reader may recognize that the commonly used term "bull market" would apply to a progressive wave, the term "bear market" would apply to a regressive wave, and the term "bear market rally" would apply to a proregressive wave.
However, conventional definitions of terms such as "bull market," "bear market," "primary," "intermediate," "minor," "rally," "pullback" and "correction" attempt to include a quantitative element and are thus rendered useless because they are arbitrary. By this definition, a decline of Such terms are of questionable value. Although a whole list of quantitative terms could be developed cub, mama bear, papa bear and grizzly, for instance , they cannot improve upon the simple use of a percentage.
In contrast, Elliott wave terms are properly definitive because they are qualitative, i. Thus, there are differing degrees of progressive, regressive and proregressive waves under the Wave Principle. A Supercycle B wave in a Grand Supercycle correction would be of sufficient amplitude and duration that it would be popularly identified as a "bull market. There are two classes of waves, which differ in fundamental importance. Waves denoted by numbers we term cardinal waves because they compose the essential wave form, the five-wave impulse, as shown in Figure Technical analysis is a trading tool that involves collecting historic data of a financial instrument to predict its future performance.
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